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With US Elections on the Horizon, Bitcoin Eyes a Potential Surge to Over $70.000
Bitcoin’s value will likely climb, possibly nearing its previous record of $73,800 ahead of the election. Several factors contribute to this potential rally, including rising U.S. Treasury yields, growing interest in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and improving electoral odds for Donald Trump. Additionally, increased institutional investments and a spike in Bitcoin call options further support this upward trend.
Past Correlation and Future Scenario
As we can observe from historical correlations in the past, just before the U.S. presidential election in 2020, Bitcoin had entered a modest upward phase, which then skyrocketed after the election. The price surged from $13,700 to a staggering $63,700, marking a 374% increase in less than a year in the financial markets.
Today, the situation is somewhat different. Bitcoin now has a market capitalization of over $1.5 trillion, and various implementations of the asset have made it a more stable and less volatile cryptocurrency. However, Bitcoin's price action remains strong, and as we can see from the chart, the price is currently trapped in a continuation flag, following the impressive rally that took place last October.
The 2024 U.S. elections are approaching, and the price continues to test the dynamic resistance of the flag, with growing volumes and high volatility.
A possible breakout after the elections could signal a new explosive bull run for Bitcoin. The current phase is one of accumulation, so get ready and fasten your seatbelts in case this scenario unfolds.
Bitcoin Surge Anticipated Before U.S. Elections
In a recent report, Standard Chartered shared an optimistic forecast for Bitcoin. Geoff Kendrick, the bank's Global Head of Digital Assets Research, suggested that Bitcoin could come close to its all-time high of $73,800 in the weeks leading up to the U.S. presidential election.
Kendrick pointed to several key drivers for Bitcoin's recent price movements. He explained:
“Multiple factors indicate that Bitcoin could rise toward its record high of $73,800 before the elections.”
These factors include a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve, renewed interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs, and favorable electoral prospects for Trump.
Kendrick also noted that institutional participation is increasing, particularly in spot Bitcoin ETFs and call options on Bitcoin. He highlighted a growing focus on the $80,000 strike price for call options expiring in late December on Deribit. Over the past week, open interest in the $80,000 calls increased by 1,500 Bitcoin, indicating rising confidence in a price surge.
The report also emphasized that Trump's chances of winning the presidency have risen to 56.3%, based on Polymarket data. This growing probability of a Republican victory, including control of both the Senate and the House, could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin. Kendrick pointed out that if Trump secures a win, there is a 70% likelihood of a full Republican takeover, which could further support the rise of Bitcoin and other risk assets. Nevertheless, he stressed that the long-term trend of digital asset adoption remains strong, regardless of the election outcome.
Conclusion
In its broader forecast, Standard Chartered projects Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs by the end of 2024, regardless of who wins the election. If Trump prevails, Bitcoin could climb as high as $125,000, whereas a Harris presidency might see it reach $75,000, albeit with potential short-term volatility.
Catalin is the co-founder of Altrady. With a background in Marketing, Business Development & Software Development. With more than 15 years of experience working in Startups or large corporations.